Saturday, February 03, 2007

Greenhouse Gases Good for Wall Street

On Friday, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) — a group of hundreds of scientists and representatives of 113 governments—issued a bleak report on climate change, indicating that it was ‘likely’ man-made.




[Source: This image shows the instrumental record of global average temperatures as compiled by the Climatic Research Unit of the University of East Anglia and the Hadley Centre of the UK Meteorological Office]

The panel predicted that this climate change would result in temperature rises of 2-11.5 degrees Fahrenheit by the year 2100.

On sea levels, the report projects rises of 7-23 inches by the end of the century. An additional 3.9-7.8 inches are possible if recent, surprising melting of polar ice sheets continues. [Press Conference Webcast]

The conclusions came after a three-year review of hundreds of studies of clues illuminating past climate shifts, observations of retreating ice, warming and rising seas, and other shifts around the planet, and a greatly expanded suite of supercomputer simulations used to test how earth will respond to a building blanket of gases that hold heat in the atmosphere.

“People experience the harshest effects of global warming through extreme weather — heat waves, droughts, floods, and hurricanes,” said study co-author Philip Jones of Britain's University of East Anglia. Those [events] have increased significantly in the past decade and will get even worse in the future.”



Given all the dire predictions, why is the 10Q Detective optimistic?

Looking at the trading history of the market (re-constructed into a yearly logarithmic chart), we see that good times for investors—when the DJIA trends higher—seem to correlate with spikes in global temperatures. The warmer the air temperature variations—the better the performance in the DJIA!

Ergo, greenhouse gases are good for Wall Street. If scientists at the IPCC are correct, this bull market still has legs.

5 comments:

Robert Freedland said...

David,

That is a stretch. Correlation isn't necessarily about causation. And when the effects of global warming hit home, sort of like what Katrina did to New Orleans, it won't be very pretty.

But hopefully, the need to address these problems will stimulate businesses much like the Manhattan Project introduced America into the nuclear age!

Great blog.

Bob

David J. Phillips said...

Tongue-in-Cheek....Unlike, Rush Limbaugh:

Rush Limbaugh debunked the assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which blames man for global warming. The conservative talk show host believes that “God is a loving God and created all that is for beautiful and wonderful reasons, and that we are turning this Creation into what it's never been before in terms of the quality of human life, I don't see how that can lead to destruction of what God created, the environmentalist wackos stop at the apocalypse. They go no further than that. They are a doom-and-gloom bunch without any of the accompanying, uplifting, upbeat, righteous aspects of religions of the Judeo-Christian ethic. Make no mistake: it is a religion. It is not science in the least.”

In addition to calling environmentalism an “apocalyptic global religion,” Limbaugh questioned the credibility of climate modeling data—and the scientists reporting on the increases in global temperatures in the past century—arguing on his Friday talk show that their data was biased because of their need for private funding: “That's the nature of science. What we are getting instead of a "consensus" of, quote, unquote, "the world's leading scientists." We don't know how many of them are being paid. We don't know how many of them are getting research grants. They all need to make money. They're not private sector types. They need grants from foundations and governments to continue their work.”

Who says what God creates, God cannot destroy? "… the same day were all the fountains of the great deep broken up, and the windows of heaven were opened, and the rain was upon the earth forty days and forty nights." [Book of Genesis, Chapter 7 – Noah’s Ark].

Hey, ‘Dittoheads?’ Thawing tundra, loss of mountain glaciers, and receding ice shelves—all signals of global warming, or Vicodin-induced paranoia—you be the judge.

Best-
David

JorgXMcKie said...

Let's see, warming, cooling, more hurricanes, fewer hurricanes, glaciers melting (that never, ever happened before), increasing cold in Antarctica, decreasing cold in Artic, all total evidence of Globla Climate Change. *Everything* that happens is *PROOF* absolute that Global Climate Change is going to kill us all. It'll just happen slower if Kyoto is implemented harshly enough.

Hey! Global Warmenizing hysteria-mongers, "all signals of global warming, or Vicodin-induced paranoia—you be the judge."

I'm not even remotely a Christian, but the True Believers (TM) in Global Warmening are crazier that Pat Roberson at his nuttiest.

Could you please, Mr. Smarty-Pants Dave, point me to the model that can correctly predict last year's weather from the actual data record. (I mean without contorting whatever data you need to contort to make it work.) Or, we could just make a bet. You pick the model, we both pump in the data and we bet on whether or not it's accurate for the coming year within .1 degree F.

Oh, and don't let this distract you from your preparations for your Inquisition of all the 'Deniers'.

David J. Phillips said...

Don't get your hair caught in a bonnet--it's called S-A-T-I-R-E.

"O, the Lord of Law on the Throne of Thought,
A gilded impostor is he.
Of shreds and patches his robes are wrought,
His crown is brass,
Himself is an ass,
And his power is fiddle-dee-dee.
Prankily, crankily prating of naught,
Silly old quilly old Monarch of Thought.
Public opinion's camp-follower he,
Thundering, blundering, plundering free.
Affected,
Ungracious,
Suspected,
Mendacious,
Respected contemporaree!"
J. H. Bumbleshook.

(Ambrose Bierce, The Devil's Dictionary, c. 1911)

Anonymous said...

The two charts are wonderful proof that the wall street index is linked to the energy consumption, and since energy is based on fossil fuels, global warming is linked to our energy consumption.

It is time to wake up and break lose from our oil addiction. If we finally do, the oil companies lose control and wall street index can grow freely independent of the oil lobby.

We might save the planet in the process...